NASCAR at New Hampshire predictions: Christopher Bell, long shots, Silly Season questions (2024)

This Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the USA Today 301, with some fresh favorites at the top of the odds.

It’s been a busy couple of weeks for NASCAR news: Martin Truex Jr. announced his retirement at the end of the season, leading to plenty of angling on who might take that seat next year. We’ve got the latest as always from our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, along with their advice for making picks this Sunday.

You can watch the USA Today 301 — New England’s only Cup Series race — on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA.

Let’s get into it!

How did drivers react to the actual race last week on Iowa’s somewhat janky track? Seems like the race was a big success, though perhaps due more to the enthusiasm of the fans than the quality of the track?

Jeff: Honestly, the racing itself was pretty great. It certainly ranks as one of the best short track races in the Next Gen era and is one of four races to score above 90 percent on my “Good Race Poll” so far this season. While the track looked odd with its partial repave, it actually had passing opportunities and enough competition throughout the race to keep it interesting the entire time. The fan enthusiasm helped, but the race was also pretty solid.

Jordan: After the race, drivers spoke largely favorably about both the surface and the overall quality of racing at Iowa, which is a surprising development considering the pessimism that existed going into the race weekend. And everyone should be happy with what transpired, as Iowa was easily one of the best short-track races of the Next Gen Car era. It will be interesting to see whether NASCAR now decides to finish repaving Iowa, or lets it be since the partial repave proved effective.

Word on the street (and in your articles) is that Chase Briscoe is a top candidate to replace Martin Truex Jr. at Joe Gibbs Racing after Truex retires at the end of this season. On the flip side of that, an open spot probably has some Xfinity and other drivers feeling hopeful. (Sam Mayer, who won his second Xfinity victory of the season at Iowa on Sunday, said it “makes me so mad” that teams aren’t considering him for Cup positions. Interesting!) What are other likely scenarios, or is Briscoe almost a sure thing?

Jeff: I’ll leave most of the Silly Season talk for Jordan (the real expert here), but Briscoe to JGR certainly sounds like a done deal. He’s the most attractive free agent on the market right now and also has the benefit of partners who like him, such as Mahindra Tractors. At Iowa, Briscoe said he had nothing to announce at the moment but confirmed he has multiple offers from teams for the first time in his career, which is nice.

Jordan: Chase Briscoe is the leading candidate to replace Martin Truex Jr. at JGR, with an announcement expected to happen sometime soon. Because Briscoe is the No. 1 available free agent and checks so many boxes that JGR is seeking (experience, proven winner, good teammate), it’s a no-brainer that the team identified Briscoe and then pursued him to fill Truex’s spot. Briscoe should do well at JGR. Regarding Sam Mayer’s Cup prospects, looking at the Cup landscape of open rides, there isn’t a spot where he’d be a good fit and positioned well to have success. Spending another year developing in Xfinity wouldn’t be the worst thing for him. And if he continues to win at his current pace, he’s going to find himself in demand.

Sam Mayer over the past nine races has two wins and five other finishes of fourth or better. And dating back to last year, Mayer’s six series wins trails only John Hunter Nemechek (8). https://t.co/JFYYFH6LF1

— Jordan Bianchi (@Jordan_Bianchi) June 15, 2024

While we’re on the subject of Truex’s retirement, what are some of your favorite memories of Truex’s career and the era of NASCAR that he represents?

Jeff: Truex was almost an afterthought in terms of ever becoming a winning driver after he won just three times in his first 10 full seasons. But once he teamed with Furniture Row Racing and crew chief Cole Pearn, he blossomed into a constant threat and eventually became a champion. Now we don’t even think twice about his immense talent at Joe Gibbs Racing, but it’s remarkable to have such a late-career Hall-of-Fame run. He’s always been a quiet, somewhat shy dude, but he earns his respect on the racetrack.

Jordan: Although Truex wasn’t at Furniture Row long, that five-year run left a lasting impression beyond just his 2017 championship season. For all but about one of those years, his first with the team, Truex contended for the title and was a dominating force on the track. What he accomplished was made all the more impressive not only in that they weren’t a high-dollar super team with hundreds of employees, but they did so with a bit of anti-conformity that is quite unique in NASCAR. In some respects, their collective attitude wasn’t all that dissimilar from the Oakland Raiders of the 1970s.

I promise this won’t all be about Truex, but his last win came last year at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, this Sunday’s track. Does he have a solid chance to win here? The competition is stiff, with six active drivers (Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell and Truex) claiming a past win at Loudon.

Jeff: Truex definitely has a chance to win, but this is going to be one of the more competitive races of the season. A couple of months ago, it seemed like Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports were going to dominate these types of circuits, but suddenly Team Penske has emerged, and you could really make a case for a Ryan Blaney victory. So it should be very interesting to see which team has the upper hand on Sunday.

Jordan: Absolutely, Truex can win Sunday. In fact, he should be considered one of the favorites to do just that. But as Jeff noted, Team Penske’s trio of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Austin Cindric have come on strong in recent weeks, particularly on tracks that share similar characteristics to New Hampshire. Blaney or Logano are expected to be big factors in Sunday’s outcome.

What can you tell us about Armani Williams? What we do know: He is the first NASCAR driver openly diagnosed on the autism spectrum and is aiming for a run at the Xfinity Series. Is this someone we should be keeping an eye on?

Jeff: Williams certainly has a unique platform and will make his Xfinity Series debut this weekend at New Hampshire. That said, expectations should be very low. Williams will drive for JD Motorsports, a team that typically runs outside the top 20 and often does not have its cars finish on the lead lap at ovals. So if Williams simply finishes the race without incident and is running within a couple laps of the leaders at the end, that would be a great accomplishment for his first Xfinity start.

Jordan: The goal is the same for nearly every driver making their series debut, especially with a small outfit like JD Motorsports. Williams needs to complete as many laps as possible and avoid causing any accidents. If he can do this, his debut will be considered a success.

Who do you like to win at New Hampshire?

Jeff: I did my 12-question interview with Christopher Bell this week because I felt like he was going to win the race, so I don’t see a reason to change now. This is one of Bell’s favorite tracks and he’s constantly in the mix there. That said, I do think Saturday’s practice will tell us a lot about which team (JGR, Hendrick, Penske) has the upper hand. Gateway, a similar track, saw the Penske drivers dominate the 10-lap averages in practice, and then they almost had a 1-2 finish after Bell’s engine blew up. So pay close attention to practice before making your picks.

Jordan: Bell is so strong he is the clear-cut favorite. But call it a hunch, my perspective is that Joey Logano is a good pick to win. Penske’s performance at both Gateway and Iowa was noteworthy to the point it feels like Logano is about to break through and score his first points win in over a year.

Who is a long shot we should be considering?

Jeff: If there was ever a week to take a chance on Ryan Preece (+20000), this would be it. Stewart-Haas Racing has shown some speed on short tracks, Preece is racing for his career after SHR announced plans to shut down at the end of the year, and he has tons of experience at New Hampshire (he’s a New England guy who has a whopping 26 Whelen Modified Tour starts at the track). Preece has shown flashes of exerting his short-track prowess at times, like at Martinsville last season. New Hampshire would be a great time for a top-10 run, just like we said Ricky Stenhouse Jr. would have last week at Iowa.

Jordan: There are a lot of candidates this week: Josh Berry (+3500) had a lot of speed at Iowa, so it wouldn’t be shocking if that carried over to New Hampshire; Alex Bowman (+4000) is overdue for a win; and let’s not forget about Kyle Busch (+3000), who may be in a slump but is very capable of winning on a track where he owns three victories and led over 1,100 laps.

Odds for NASCAR at New Hampshire race winner

Oddsvia BetMGM.

(Photo of Christopher Bell: Logan Riely / Getty Images)