Before anybody in the Ann Arbor area gets too offended by what they're about to read, I have to establish my bona fides.
That's right: Last summer, I was bold enough to predict Michigan football would win the College Football Playoff come January.
Lucky guess? Probably.
There was logic behind the luck, though: It genuinely looked like the Wolverines had all the pieces needed to make a run at the title.
Jim Harbaugh entered a season with a potential top-10 NFL draft pick at quarterback, the best offensive line in the country two years running, a unanimous All-American running back, a pair of experienced senior wideouts, the program's most talented tight end since Jake Butt and a defense widely expected to be one of the best in the nation.
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In case that wasn't enough reason for confidence, there was a nonconference schedule with three cupcakes, an October full of mediocre league opponents and, finally, the only three consequential games of the regular season: at Penn State, at Maryland and home against Ohio State.
In short, last season seemed set up for the Wolverines to perfectly crescendo, growing into their identity and becoming the buzzsaw that defeated three top-five opponents (Ohio State, Alabama and Washington) en route to the CFP title.
The parade was cold, but long overdue for those who support the maize and blue, and the best team in program history finished its history-making season by sending a record 18 players to the NFL combine and 13 players into the NFL draft itsself.
Those two numbers are a large part of the reason why I'm going to upset some Michigan fans right now: I'm not pick U-M to repeat for a fourth year.
It simply doesn't line up the same way.
For starters (pun intended), Michigan lost 16 of them from last year's squad — 10 of them on offense.
Then there's the coaching staff. There are six new new occupants of offices in Schembechler Hall, hired after Harbaugh poached the entire defensive staff to join him with the Los Angeles Chargers. Five other coaches are in different roles from last season, including head coach Sherrone Moore. In fact, the only full-time coach who did not change positions is wide receivers coach Ron Bellamy.
Beyond a host of new voices and ideas, there are questions on offense — particularly at quarterback.
Will U-M go with Alex Orji, the dual-threat option with a high ceiling? Or seventh-year quarterback Jack Tuttle, who is more of a pocket passer but has enough mobility to extend plays with his legs and has a ton of collegiate experience? How will the new offensive line — which lost its top six options from last year — mesh together? Will running back Donovan Edwards get back to his 2022 ways? Is there a true No. 1 receiver on the roster?
At least on defense, there seems to be few questions. Cornerback Will Johnson may be the best player in the nation. If he's not, it's because defensive tackle Mason Graham has stolen the title from him. Likewise, Graham, a projected first round pick, may be the only defensive tackle in the Big Ten (and maybe the nation) better than his partner down the line, Kenneth Grant.
Those three headling my All-Big Ten team, with tight end Colston Loveland and offensive lineman Josh Priebe, a Northwestern transfer, making it on the offense.
That's five standouts in the conference, which is pretty good. But there's one team with more All-Big Ten potential that's the reason I'm not picking Michigan to win it all: Ohio State.
I have eight Buckeyes on my All-Big Ten team, which felt ridiculous, until I looked at the names. OSU may have added the nation's top two transfers at their positions in running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss) and cornerback Caleb Downs (Alabama). They also bring in the highest-rated freshman receiver in the nation in Jeremiah Smith. That's in addition to a host of familiar names: wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, cornerback Denzel Burke and defensive lineman J.T. Tuimoloau.
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Oh, and remember that thing about the favorable schedule last year? Before they get to the yearly rivalry against Ohio State (one of two annual protected matchups, along with Michigan State), the Wolverines will deal with three of the four new teams in the Big Ten this year: USC (Sept. 21) in Ann Arbor, Washington (Oct. 5) on the road and and Oregon (Nov. 2) in the Big House.
It's really that last team, the Ducks, that's troublesome. Nike founder Phil Knight, an Oregon alumnus and already a more-than-generous athletics supporter, has reportedly said he's giving his alma mater "unlimited NIL" to get the players necessary to win a national championship.
The Ducks may not have brought in all of them this year, but adding Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma as the starting quarterback and Dante Moore — the former Detroit King standout and the No. 1-ranked player in his 2022 recruiting class — from UCLA as the backup QB is a fantastic place to start.
Michigan should still be fantastic, too. Is there a chance U-M could win the Big Ten again? Absolutely.
What about a national championship? That, too, is not out of the question, especially as we all try to sort out what a 12-team playoff means.
But there are certainly more questions for the Wolverines now than at this time last year, which means more for them to prove, even without a loss over nearly 570 days.
Unproven does not mean bad, and only time will tell if Michigan can set a program record with a fourth consecutive Big Ten championship.
Tony Garcia's projected Big Ten standings
1. Ohio State.
2. Oregon.
3. Michigan.
4. Penn State.
5. Iowa.
6. USC.
7. Wisconsin.
8. Rutgers.
9. Washington.
10. Nebraska.
11. Maryland.
12. Michigan State.
13. Minnesota.
14. Northwestern.
15. Indiana.
16. UCLA.
17. Illinois.
18. Purdue.
Pre-season All-Big Ten team
Offense
QB: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon.
RB: Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State.
RB: Kyle Monangai, Rutgers.
WR: Tez Johnson, Oregon.
WR: Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State.
TE: Colston Loveland, Michigan.
OL: Aireontae Ersery, Minnesota.
OL: Donovan Jackson, Ohio State.
OL: Logan Jones, Iowa.
OL: Josh Priebe, Michigan.
OL: Jonah Monheim, USC.
Defense
DL: J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State.
DL: Mason Graham, Michigan.
DL: Kenneth Grant, Michigan.
DL: Abdul Carter, Penn State.
LB: Jay Higgins, Iowa.
LB: Nick Jackson, Iowa.
LB: Xander Mueller, Northwestern.
DB: Will Johnson, Michigan.
DB: Caleb Downs, Ohio State.
DB: Sebastian Castro, Iowa.
DB: Denzel Burke, Ohio State.
P: Ryan Eckley, Michigan State.
K: Dragan Keisch, Minnesota.
All-purpose: Zachariah Branch, USC.
Superlatives
Coach of the year: Ryan Day, Ohio State.
Player of the year: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon.
Newcomer of the year: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State.
